Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 66564.332154 70421.103875 74283.981986 78440.352356 82783.135491 87183.837836 91977.403643
2025-04-20 60547.507880 66456.565899 72547.703121 79286.506586 86523.646588 94053.145857 102469.694982
2025-04-27 56433.353896 63771.349020 71508.526824 80255.517888 89849.755012 100033.473363 111640.449854
2025-05-04 52994.107248 61377.858673 70387.500924 80758.241553 92333.498881 104822.961933 119284.375861
2025-05-11 49908.972241 59080.996402 69104.753569 80826.366159 94109.053961 108644.828509 125704.748736
2025-05-18 47396.092212 57225.169509 68130.721109 81064.718599 95919.684452 112380.044697 131929.156279
2025-05-25 45138.991759 55507.163888 67172.754160 81188.540931 97484.663717 115747.305050 137670.121258
2025-06-01 43681.691552 54616.744876 67076.911432 82223.016289 100027.892781 120183.393348 144608.952674
2025-06-08 41736.220987 53044.313711 66090.221916 82129.443157 101185.867378 122968.591930 149607.356090
2025-06-15 40685.997567 52479.006627 66237.082593 83324.891714 103820.678251 127451.466987 156583.664446
2025-06-22 39469.147479 51647.838502 66010.874889 84026.547398 105833.562275 131184.795088 162679.054677
2025-06-29 38000.160472 50441.854530 65273.599580 84058.584173 107001.575435 133889.722279 167544.223338
2025-07-06 36538.313325 49203.481842 64465.088387 83982.492456 108033.173349 136445.557087 172271.107940
2025-07-13 35750.696813 48778.755183 64632.322510 85085.407025 110492.443517 140723.569057 179095.197153
2025-07-20 35004.118194 48371.572573 64793.090557 86158.629492 112904.485334 144947.916695 185876.845703
2025-07-27 34059.579209 47671.309285 64552.414514 86701.725105 114641.864761 148344.498576 191661.215073
2025-08-03 32958.895195 46727.338219 63966.246855 86776.267968 115770.072620 150980.424838 196514.186825
2025-08-10 32000.318098 45934.795692 63542.422388 87029.268182 117101.735948 153857.498111 201668.329330
2025-08-17 31041.646994 45108.431506 63044.747877 87160.539319 118259.242990 156508.305953 206545.128728
2025-08-24 30541.171028 44875.691665 63303.049487 88256.186715 120640.734459 160694.743287 213358.529510
2025-08-31 29573.677842 43979.480781 62662.590140 88157.094968 121471.934403 162924.265881 217722.067505
2025-09-07 29203.822277 43884.307906 63069.512136 89423.034636 124063.911889 167388.097511 224925.668666
2025-09-14 28645.888544 43510.371764 63089.009897 90165.972305 125972.655317 170989.783465 231057.197402